Assessing Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Your Trade with China

A world organized for decades by globalization and geo-economics has rapidly become a world founded on geopolitical risks.

Key Geopolitical Risks for 2025

1. Tensions Between Russia and NATO
   The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to pose significant geopolitical risks, creating a humanitarian crisis and exposing the world to greater risks in capital flows, trade, and commodity markets.
2. Cyber Attacks
   Cyber attacks are becoming more frequent and severe, increasingly used as a tool of state policy. The digitization of critical national infrastructure means many essential services are vulnerable to cyber attacks.
3. Strategic Competition Between the United States and China
   China’s increasing military presence in the South China Sea, technological advancement, and ongoing trade tensions with the United States have led to geopolitical tensions.
4. Climate Risks
   Climate change has led to more frequent and severe weather events such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, and forest fires, damaging infrastructure and disrupting supply chains.

Impact on Trade with China

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Diversify Supply Chains: Reduce dependence on a single supplier
2. Improve Regulatory Transparency: Understand local and international regulations
3. Invest in Cybersecurity: Protect data and operations
4. Monitor Political Developments: Stay updated on political changes

Recommendations for Companies

• Integrate geopolitical risk analysis into strategy and governance
• International cooperation is key to navigating this disruption
• Resilience and adaptability are essential in a changing environment