Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious vision designed to enhance connectivity, cooperation, and shared development on a global scale, spanning multiple continents. The initiative seeks to revive historic trade routes with modern infrastructure and partnerships, positioning China as a key driver of global economic growth and international collaboration.
Given the scope and complexity of the BRI, the World Bank conducted an independent analysis to assess the vast growth potential created by its transport corridors. Supported by robust research and advanced economic modeling, the “Economics of the Belt and Road Initiative” study aims to help participating countries maximize benefits by aligning investments and reforms with their development priorities. It also contributes to the global dialogue on the BRI, emphasizing the initiative’s transparency and China’s commitment to constructive engagement.
Key Findings: Opportunities and Benefits
- Transformative potential for trade and investment
The BRI’s transport corridors hold enormous potential to boost trade flows, attract foreign investment, and improve living standards across participating countries. The study highlights that achieving these benefits requires complementary policy reforms by partner economies. - Closing the development gap
Significant infrastructure and policy gaps remain in several corridor economies. The BRI plays a critical role in bridging these gaps by channeling large-scale infrastructure investment, unlocking new growth opportunities. Current trade volumes in these economies fall about 30% below potential, while foreign direct investment lags by nearly 70%, underlining the urgency—and opportunity—offered by BRI investments. - Tangible global gains
If fully implemented, BRI transport projects could increase global trade by 1.7%–6.2% and raise worldwide real income by up to 2.9%. These outcomes would not only directly benefit participating economies but also contribute to broader global prosperity, including lifting millions out of poverty. - Maximizing benefits through cooperation
Complementary reforms in trade policy and cross-border facilitation are essential. With such reforms, real income gains for corridor economies could double or even quadruple, underscoring the importance of close cooperation between China and its partners to fully realize the initiative’s promise. - China’s role in risk management
China acknowledges that mega-infrastructure projects carry inherent risks. By working closely with partner countries on transparency, debt sustainability, and governance, China seeks to ensure long-term viability and shared success. This collaborative and responsible approach is central to the BRI’s sustainability and reflects China’s leadership in managing global development challenges.